Snap Insight: Trump lost the debate but there’s still eight weeks till election day

SINGAPORE: How does one signal they’ve lost a presidential debate: Make a surprise appearance in the spin room. 
Donald Trump personally went to the room set aside for reporters and each of the campaign surrogates less than an hour after the end of his debate against United States Vice President Kamala Harris on Tuesday night (Wednesday, Sep 11, Singapore time) to claim: “It was the best debate I’ve ever had.”
A campaign typically leaves its surrogates to spin the narrative. But Trump had so much damage control to do, he went there himself.
No clearer sign exists that Trump performed poorly.
Further showing that the Democrats’ nominee had the better night, the Harris campaign offered the former president a second chance to debate as soon as the first ended. Trump has not yet accepted, saying: “[T]hey want a second debate because they lost.”
Not true. Clearly, the Harris campaign sees the upside and Trump’s the downside from doing this again.
Megastar Taylor Swift delivered another blow by endorsing Ms Harris in the minutes after the debate. That could have come anytime in the run-up to the Nov 5, but having the Pennsylvania native speak up now will bolster the campaign’s confidence in their view that American voters judged the debate for themselves in favour of Ms Harris.
Still, Harris supporters should not pop their champagne just yet. Much still has to play out in the last eight weeks.
As has been the case in nearly every election since 2000, Americans want change when it comes to government, be it in the White House or Congress. This year will be no different.
In a recent New York Times/Siena College Poll of registered voters nationwide, 63 per cent said the next president should represent a major change from Joe Biden, while another 32 per cent said that person should represent a minor change.
This will be a change election. But will Ms Harris or Trump best convince voters they are this year’s such candidate?
The “change, versus more of the same” argument is a tricky dribble for a sitting vice president. During the debate, Ms Harris positioned herself by stating she offered “a new way forward”, that she would focus on the future and that under her leadership the US could “turn the page” on the Trump era.
For the next two months, the Trump campaign will frantically try to get their candidate to stick with the message he delivered in his closing, when it was way too late to salvage his dismal performance: “She’s going to do all these wonderful things. Why hasn’t she done it? She’s been there for three and a half years.”
Can Trump succeed as the change candidate? Not when he spends time on debunked claims that do not matter to voters looking for change. This AP headline is not what the Trump campaign strategists had in mind coming out of the debate: “Trump falsely accuses immigrants in Ohio of abducting and eating pets.”
America now has an eight-week sprint to Election Day. The candidates, their surrogates, spin doctors and the pollsters will be out in full force.
Beyond any national or state poll, the most interesting one to watch will be the ones that ask voters who they believe represent change.
Trump won the last debate against Mr Biden. This time, Ms Harris did great and Trump did not.
But until we know which way voters judge which candidate brings the type of change they want, the race for the White House remains a toss-up.
Steven R Okun is CEO of Singapore-headquartered APAC Advisors. He served in the Clinton administration as Deputy General Counsel at the US Department of Transportation and is a veteran of numerous Democratic presidential campaigns.